The bank's analysts poured cold water on JP Morgan next year, taking a “cautious” stance on their crypto outlook in 2024.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a newly published report that the Bitcoin halving price is “overpriced” because the halving event and its impact on the supply of Bitcoin are predictable and, in our opinion, well included in the current price of Bitcoin.
The group argued based on the current situation. Bitcoin Hash speed and mining difficulty, the production cost of miners will rise from around $22,000 currently to $44,000 post-halving.
A bitcoin price of around $42,000 corresponds to a 5% post-halving price drop, which “seems too low,” the group said, assuming a 20% drop in the hash rate and miners exiting the market.
From half day of 2020 The price of Bitcoin With about a 1:1 ratio to miners' production costs, and the current price of bitcoin at around double the production cost, the report suggests that the 2024 halving of the price is largely rewarded.
The report also cast doubt on the approval of the long-awaited site. Bitcoin ETF It brings new capital to the market. JPMorgan analysts cited both a lack of interest from investors in already established ETFs in Canada and Europe, and the possibility that capital will move from existing Bitcoin products to Bitcoin ETFs such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.GBTC), Bitcoin futures ETFs and Bitcoin mining companies.
The report argues that about $2.7 billion in GBTC outflows could go into the spot Bitcoin ETF as investors take profits. Analysts said that those funds leaving the market instead of going into other Bitcoin instruments would put “severe downward pressure” on Bitcoin's price.
Ethereum It can “be over”. Bitcoin In the year In 2024, the report pointed to EIP-4844's “prototanksharding” reform as a potential boost, but raised concerns about the centralization of stakes on the Ethereum network.
The report warned that it is “too early to be complacent” about the revival DeFi And NFT Movement, citing the “encouraging” rise of new DFI chains including Aptos, SUI and Pulsechain and the “renewed interest” in NFTs due to the emergence of Bitcoin Ordinals.
JP Morgan and crypto
The JP Morgan report comes a week after the company's CEO, Jamie Dimon, took aim at crypto at a Senate Banking Committee hearing, saying he would “shut it down” if it became the US government.
Dimon said, “The real use case [crypto] Criminals, drug dealers, money laundering, tax evasion,” he said, adding, “I'm always against crypto, bitcoin, etc.”
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