Light Token (LIT) Beats Jupiter – High Liquidity in Danger?
Liter (LIT) is a decentralized sustainable futures exchange built on Ethereum Layer 2. After airdropping 25 percent of its total supply, investors expect LIT's market capitalization to continue growing.
Why do investors remain optimistic about Liter's potential, and what risks should be considered now? The next topic examines these questions in detail.
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Light price surpasses Pump.fun and Jupiter
Previously, Lighter had raised $68 million at a $1.5 billion valuation. Shortly after launch, Coinbase listed LIT with the LIGHTER-USD trading pair. The price currently fluctuates around $2.7–2.9, with a fully diluted value (FDV) of approximately $2.7 billion.
After the air drop, the market saw a lot of activity from the whale investor. On-chain analytics account Lookonchain reports that at least three wallets have invested $9.98 million into Liter to buy LIT.
BeinCrypto's report revealed that large buyers are absorbing the supply of LIT. This feature helps to maintain buying pressure and support the price. It suggests that some investors believe that LIT has upside potential, especially during the initial price discovery period.
Data from CoinGecko shows that despite its new launch, Liter's valuation has surpassed Pump.Fun and Jupiter. Layer is currently ranked fourth in the decentralized exchange (DEX) coins sector behind HyperLiquid, Aster and Uniswap.
Investors believe that Liter's FDV may not stop at $2.7 billion. They expect it to rise significantly.
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Investors expect the price of LIT (LIT) to be in line with Aster or Hyper Liquidity.
Many reasons support this belief.
First, in terms of focus, the lighter stands out. Dexu AI reports that Liter (LIT) currently holds the highest share of mind among the perpetual derivatives protocols.
After Jupiter and HyperLiquid, Liter has seen strong growth in the number of “smart followers”. In addition, Lighter has a strong Maxis community. It ranks third behind Hyperliquid and Aster.
Second, despite its recent launch, Liter has achieved 24-hour trading comparable to Aster. The rate closely follows HyperLiquid. Lyr's 7-day and 30-day volumes exceed both competitors.
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“Very close competition. Hyper liquid. Lighter. Aster only wins one…” said investor Alex.
As a result, investors believe that Liter, like Aster, has the potential to reach an FDV of around $5.5 billion. This scenario indicates that the price of LIT may double from its current level of $2.7.
Some investors even expect LIT to surpass the HYPE. Hyperliquid's FDV is about $25 billion. This suggests a nearly tenfold increase for LIT.
However, these comparisons rely heavily on hype-driven sentiments. Some analysts strongly disagree.
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What about the risks?
X user Henrik Leiter noticed that he lost 25% of his open interest in the last three weeks. He also compared the P/E ratio of the two projects. The comparison shows that LIT trades higher than HYPE, despite weaker fundamentals.
“In this sense, LIT is currently more expensive than HYPE in both circulation and fully diluted metrics, despite weak fundamentals. In addition, 100% of HyperLiquid's revenue goes to buybacks, while LIT's revenue distribution and token value remain unclear.
Additionally, the drop in revenue following the Token Generation Event (TGE) raised concerns. Analyst Tyler Dee noted that Liner's revenue fell from $1.5 million a day on Nov. 21 to $150,000 a day in December. This represents a tenfold failure.
Historical data shows that airdrop incentives often increase transaction volume and temporarily increase revenue. For long-term growth, however, Lighter must prove clear advantages over its competitors. The project must be able to withstand the broad market headwinds.
