SOL’s Bear Flag targets $86 amid on-chain activity

Solana's native token SOL (SOL) fell 52% between September 18 and November 21, sending bitcoin to a seven-month low of $80,000. As a result, the price of SOL has lost key long-term support levels, onchain and technical data suggest a deep correction below $100.

Main Receptors:

Solana's total value fell to a 6-month low of $8.67 billion.

By 2025, Solana's memecoin weekly trading volume had fallen by 95%.

A bearish pennant will send the SOL price down to $86.

Solana's TVL drops to June levels

The total value locked on the Solana blockchain (TVL) rose by 34% to a six-month low of $8.67 billion on Wednesday, reaching a peak of $13.22 billion on September 14. Solana's TVL has been below $10 billion in the last 30 days.

TVL's decline was led by Gito's liquidation stacking, down 53% since mid-September, according to Defilama data. Other decentralized applications such as Jupiter DX, Radium, and Sanctum Protocol recorded 30%, 46%, and 46% declines, respectively.

Related: Solana ETFs Record 7-Day Gains Despite Price Decline

The potential for SOL to drop below $100 has been supported by Solana Network fees, active addresses, and declining transaction counts over the past seven days.

Solana's chain earnings totaled $3.43 million last week, representing an 11 percent decrease from last week and a 23 percent decrease from last month.

At the same time, active addresses (AAs) on the Solana base layer decreased by 7.8% in the same period, while the number of transactions decreased by 6.3% in seven days.

Drops in AAs, transaction volume, and network fees suggest that demand for SOL chains has decreased, adding to the upward pressure.

The amount of Solana memecoin has fallen

The drop in Solana TVL shows the bearishness in Solana-based memecoins flashing red across the board.

Solana-based memecoins posted double-digit losses on both weekly and monthly time frames, as shown in the image below. Most of these tokens are down 10% to 25% from their local highs.

This devaluation of Solana-based memecoins was accompanied by a decrease in DX activity on the Layer-1 blockchain. Weekly DEX volume on Solana remains muted, falling 95% to $2.7 billion from a high of $56 billion in January, according to Blockworks Research.

The decline in memecoin activity on Solana indicates low network activity and declining usage, which negatively impacts demand and SOL value.

SOL's “Bear Pennant” has a target of $90,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate that SOL is trading below a bearish pennant, suggesting further downside risk.

A bear pennant is a downward continuation pattern that occurs after a major decline, followed by a period of consolidation at the lower end of the price range.

Last week's break below the Pennant support line at $135 cleared the way for the next leg for the altcoin. The measured bearish pennant target is $86, or a 32% downside from the current price level.

Before reaching this level, SOL can find support from the 200-week EMA at $118, bulls are expected to mount a strong resistance.

“A bear pennant is forming on Solana's four-hour chart,” anonymous trader Grimm said on XPost on Wednesday.

“I wouldn't be surprised to see Solana at $90 to $100 soon.”

According to Cointelegraph, the price of SOL breaking below the symmetric triangle support line at $126 indicates that the bears are in control, which will lead to a deep correction to $95.

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