The last time this happened, the price of XRP dropped 68%

The structure of the XRP (XRP) onchain market looks set for a major loss in 2022 after the price lost a key support level.

Main Receptors:

The structure of the XRP onchain reflects the February 2022 setup that resulted in a 68% price drop.

XRP bulls need to recover $2 to avoid a deep correction at $1.10.

XRP spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $53.32 million.

The previous signal was preceded by a 68% XRP price drop.

Glassnode data warned that XRP's current market structure “closely resembles that of February 2022”, an event that was finally months before exhaustion.

“XRP investors operating in the 1W–1M window are now accumulating a 6M–12M batch cost base,” the market intelligence firm wrote in a recent article on X.

Related: New SEC Filings Push for Self-Regulation and DeFi Regulation

This creates a situation where new buyers make a profit, while medium-term owners sit at a loss. If key support levels are not recovered, this gap will become over-pressured over time.

Added Glassnode:

“As this structure continues, the psychological pressure on top buyers will increase over time.”

A similar pattern was seen in February 2022 when XRP was trading at $0.78, leading to a 68% decline to $0.30 in June 2022.

If history repeats itself, if the $1.80 to $2 support doesn't hold, XRP could drop to $1.40.

The $2 level will be a key psychological zone.

The $2 level is a key psychological threshold for XRP in the short to medium term. In an earlier analysis, Glassnode found that each $2 test by early 2025 resulted in a weekly guaranteed loss of $500 million to $1.2 billion, suggesting that holders would choose to exit their positions and cut their losses.

“This highlights how much this level affects spending behavior.”

As the price slips below this important $2 level, pressure is put on holders who acquired XRP at high levels, while new buyers gather at low levels.

In the year The 2022 fractal reinforces the importance of this level, suggesting that the price will see a deeper correction if it does not recover soon.

For example, the $0.55 level was also a key support level in the past. It supported the price from April 2021 to May 2022, with each subsequent attempt weakening the support. The support was finally broken in May 2022, falling 48% to $0.28.

Likewise, missing the support at $2 could trigger a downward spiral, with the price falling below the 200-week moving average by $1.03, as recently as 2022.

According to Cointelegraph, XRP's break below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2 indicates that the bears are back in the game, with the lowest risk at $1.25.

XRP ETFs record their second day of outflows

On Tuesday, Spot XRP ETFs recorded their second day of outflows totaling $53 million since launch, according to Soso Value data. This is $13 million higher than the $40 million inflow recorded on January 7.

These flows indicate caution among institutional investors or profiteering amid broader crypto market weakness and risk-averse sentiment, adding to sell-side pressure.