This XRP indicator warns that the price may break below $1: analyst
XRP (XRP) retreated about 63% from its high of $3.66 on Wednesday to trade at $1.36, a technical setup that could affect the price, according to market analysts.
Main Receptors:
XRP appears bearish below $1.40, with chart technicals pointing to further declines to $0.70-$1.
Continued inflows of XRP ETFs, whale stocks and active addresses may devalue the outlook.
Where will the price of XRP be?
In an X-Tuesday post, Chart Nerd notes that previous breakouts from the monthly Gaussian Channel indicator suggest that XRP may be headed lower in the coming weeks or months.
Related: XRP Traders More Optimistic As BTC, ETH Sentiment Turns Sour: Santiment
Gaussian Channel is a technical analysis indicator used to identify trends, identify potential support/resistance levels and overbought/sold conditions.
As the chart below shows, every time the price of XRP increases, it is adjusted to retest the upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel, which is currently at $1.16.
This always takes three to four months “before further declines to the middle regression band of the Gaussian channel mark the bottom and continue the trend higher,” the analyst said:
“The intermediate regression band is currently around $0.70, which is a previous one-year resistance level seen in 2023/2024, and has not been tested for support.”
Chart Nerd adds that this scenario will be confirmed if XRP falls below the low of $1.12 reached on February 6.
Meanwhile, analyst Crypto Patel said that while the drop to $1 provides a good entry zone for XRP buyers, the “best storage zone” could be as low as $0.50-$0.70.
“XRP/USDT is currently down ~70% from its recent ATH. After a historic 96% decline from $3.28 to $0.1050 in 2018, a similar crash is unlikely,” the technical analyst said.
“A corrective adjustment of less than $1 can be made.”
According to Cointelegraph, the probability of XRP falling below $1 increased after the price rejected the 200-week moving average of $1.40.
Is there hope for XRP price recovery?
Despite the weak XRP price, institutional demand and whale stocks continue.
In the year The Spot XRP ETF, which launched in late 2025, has now reached $1.23 billion in accumulated net income. Tuesday's inflow of $3.26 million marked the fifth consecutive day of inflows, bringing total assets under management to $1.01 billion.
“Institutional interest and XRP ETF gains continue, with fixed-position ETF net gains underpinning institutional confidence,” trader Levi said in a recent post on X.
XRP's recent rebound to $1.50 from $1.12 comes amid speculation that the price will fall below $1, market intelligence platform Sentiment said in a recent post on X.
Another hope for the bulls is that whales stockpiled during the crash hit a four-month high of 1,389, as transactions above $100,000 in XRP rose to a four-month high.
The number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger “suddenly ballooned to 78,727 in one 8-hour candle – the highest in 6 months,” Santiment said.
“These are both major signs of a price reversal for any asset.”
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