VanEck’s Ethereum model projects a $55K price target by 2030 amid network growth
TLDR:
As Layer 2 networks gain traction in the DeFi sectors, Ethereum market share estimates rise from 70% to 85%.
Revenue Estimates Adjusted to $130 Billion for 2030 Stable Coin Size and Blob Payment Methods
Circulating supply estimate reduced from 100.1 million to 95 million ETH due to volatility in stock and charge burn
The terminal price multiple has risen to 40x, reflecting Ethereum's role as a global settlement infrastructure layer.
An updated version of VanEck's Ethereum pricing model suggests the asset could reach $55,000 to $65,000 by 2030.
The update shows structural changes in the Ethereum marketplace and revenue generation since the original forecast.
Analyst Joseph Yang shared the recalculated forecast on social media citing significant changes in key parameters driving the model's output.
Market share and revenue projections show great growth
In the year The original VanEck model in 2024 estimated the base case price of Ethereum for 2030 at approximately $22,000. That forecast puts Ethereum at 70% market share in the decentralized finance, stablecoin and tokenization sectors.
According to current data, the network now commands more than 60% dominance in these categories. Layer 2 solutions built on Ethereum have accelerated adoption rates. The revised model adjusts the market share estimate to 85% based on this trend.
Revenue estimates for 2030 have risen from an initial estimate of $78 billion. Stablecoin transaction volumes now exceed $8 trillion per quarter on Ethereum and Layer 2 networks.
Through recent improvements, blob payments have created additional revenue streams. Real-world property tokenization has emerged as a major source of income. The revised model raises the 2030 revenue target to about $130 billion.
Supply volatility provides another variable that affects price calculations. VanEeq will initially distribute 100.1 million ETH in 2030.
Higher participation rates and increased blob fees have reduced supply expectations.
The updated analysis revises the 2030 supply figure to 95 million ETH. This reduction accentuates the cost impact of projected cash flows.
An extended network function that reflects a lot of value
The terminal multiplier applied to Ethereum cash flows shows how the market evaluates the future earnings of the network.
VanEck's original model used a 33x multiplier based on Ethereum's role as a Layer 1 blockchain. The network has evolved beyond basic smart contract functionality.
Ethereum now runs settlements for stablecoins, decentralized financial protocols, and tokenized assets.
Joseph Young's analysis suggests that the terminal multiplier should be increased to 40x. This adjustment is Ethereum's position as a global payment infrastructure.
The network handles cleaning operations for multiple asset classes. Institutional adoption of Ethereum for settlement continues to expand.
Ethereum is currently at $3,085.41 with a daily volume of more than $6.9 billion. The revised prediction model applies VanEck's original method with updated inputs.
The calculation divides the projected 2030 cash flows by the supply, then multiplies by the terminal value. Using current market conditions and growth trends, this results in a range of $55,000 to $65,000.
