What does it mean for BTC price?
Bitcoin (BTC) on Friday was weighed against gold (XAU), reviving hopes of a possible capital rotation away from the precious metal and back into kriptovalyutnyh markets in 2026.
Main Receptors:
Bitcoin is at a low price against gold, a level linked to a major BTC bottom.
Past gold-led cycles support optimism for BTC prices in 2026.
Bitcoin will “greatly outpace gold” by 2026, he says.
The lowest reading comes from the z-score of the BTC–XAU ratio, a measure of how far the current ratio is from its long-term average.
A reading below -2 indicates that Bitcoin was trading more than two standard deviations higher than gold. In this case, BTC entered the lowest band of the model for the first time on record.
Historically, the BTC/XAU ratio moves into the -2 standard deviation zone over the extended period of time Bitcoin has outperformed gold, as shown in the Power-Law band graph below.
Analyst Julius, who conceptualized the BTC/Gold Power-Law bands and the Z-score oscillator, said: “Everything points to Bitcoin outperforming gold in the coming months.
What does gold's record rally mean for BTC price?
In the past, Z-score dips into the -2 standard deviation zone have marked major Bitcoin downsides.
For example, the BTC/XAU bearish signal in November 2022 is ahead of the roughly 150% BTC price rally next year.
Similarly, Bitcoin has risen over 1,170% since the signal appeared in March 2020.
According to Julius, the Z-score is also called Bitcoin's macro tops.
“Bitcoin was overbought in late 2017, while gold was oversold,” X wrote in a Jan. 3 post.
Shortly thereafter, Bitcoin entered a bear market and Gold began a multi-year rally to new ATHs.
Additionally, historical data shows that Bitcoin's strongest price expansions tend to follow gold bull markets.
BTC started parabolic levels after gold moved decisively above its long-term trend. In previous cycles, this lag ranged from approximately two months to a year, after which BTC made the largest percentage gains.
RELATED: At least 50% of BTC price gains in March show Bitcoin-gold correlation
Bitcoin's decline relative to gold, therefore, suggests a higher price outlook for BTC in 2026, as long as this is not a historical pattern.
Many analysts predict that BTC will reach $200,000–$300,000 by the end of the year.
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