Why do analysts expect Altcoin season in March?

Although the recovery of the market in February was weak, it showed several notable signs. These signs have led analysts to expect that the altcoin season may end in March.

However, investor sentiment is cautious, with capital still favoring Bitcoin over altcoins, which could hamper a broader recovery.

Hope will return to the Altcoin market in March

Data from CryptoQuant shows that only about 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above the 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA). This means that 95% remain below this level, which shows the current poor performance of altcoins.

However, historical patterns offer a glimmer of hope. Over the past two years, this ratio has typically stayed above 15% for at most five months before rebounding. This pattern was observed from June to October 2024 and again from February to June 2025.

The ratio started declining in October last year and has now reached the end of the fifth month. This development raises expectations of an increase in demand as investors are likely to see most altcoins fall to attractive price levels.

Meanwhile, several analysts identified early positive signs on the February OTHERS/BTC chart, which tracks the entire altcoin market excluding Bitcoin and BTC.

Analyst Blade said the chart shows signs of change on the monthly timeframe. The MACD indicator crossed above the signal line and formed the first green histogram bar since the beginning of 2024. Similar signs were seen before major altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2020.

“Reversals and structural contractions often precede expansions. The big alseason is coming,” Blade predicted.

These factors have strengthened expectations that altcoins may post a recovery in March.

Altcoin investors still beware

For a more balanced perspective, data from CryptoQuant indicates that the ratio of altcoin trading volume to bitcoin trading volume on central exchanges (CEXs) has fallen to its lowest level in the last year.

In the year By 2025, the ratio has risen to around 3.5. It then gradually declined, falling below 2.5 at the end of last year and continuing to hover around 2.2 in early 2026.

This trend shows that investors' expectations of the altcoin season are weak. Capital continues to focus primarily on Bitcoin, while altcoins are relatively neglected on centralized exchanges. A true altcoin season may require continuous capital rotation and new entry into the market.

At the time of writing, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 43, still far from the 75-point threshold needed to confirm an altcoin season.

A recent BeInCrypto report said the altcoin market has experienced 13 consecutive months of net sales. Although the altcoin season may be real, it can be chosen and driven by strong fundamentals.