Wintermuth’s report says the October crash ended the Altseason.
According to Wintermute, retail investors who were told by October's massive crypto liquidation event that their hopes for the altcoin season are over have fled to major cryptocurrencies.
Starting around 2022, retailers will be the main sellers of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) and opt for altcoins instead, but that pattern will break in 2025, according to Wintermuth's “Digital Asset OTC Market 2025” report released on Tuesday.
The Oct. 10 liquidity event and market crash “marked a clear inflection point,” accelerating retail's shift to Bitcoin and Ether, the firm said.
The data show that retail investors were actively reducing exposure to majors at the time, but quickly moved into them after the record outflow.
“This reflects liquidity shocks and growing contagion concerns and an immediate defensive stance following a bear market.”
Wintermuth reported that by the end of the year, the retail position was aligned with institutional, “prioritizing liquidity and recovery over risk exposure.”
Altcoin rallies were not without conviction.
The return to the mainstream precluded any altcoin season in this cycle, and altcoins were “less material” in 2025.
“Narratives continue to emerge, but fail to sustain,” the report said.
The average altcoin rally lasted 19 days in 2025, down from 60 days the year before, “reflecting less delinquency and more systematic risk-taking,” Wintermute added.
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That's not to say there was a lack of narrative, but a market “showing clear signs of fatigue” where rallies quickly faded.
From 2022 to 2024, altcoin rallies will typically last 45 to 60 days, with an ongoing narrative including memecoins and AI. However, the average length of altcoin rallies in 2025 was only 20 days.
“This makes it feel like a tactical trade rather than a high penalty trend.”
The threat of an October crash is waning.
While altcoins are yet to see any real progress heading into 2026, risk fears and panic have subsided in October, leading to renewed confidence going forward.
As Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan said earlier this month, “One of the reasons we've come together to launch this year is because investors have put October 10 in the rearview.
Total market capitalization is at its highest level this year, up 10%, or $300 billion, since Jan. 1, reaching $3.34 trillion on Wednesday, according to CoinGecko.
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