XRP may rise to $12 as price cycle bottom zone holds for months.
XRP is testing a key long-term support level that has historically preceded major recoveries, according to a monthly chart shared by analyst Mikubul Crypto.
Main Receptors:
XRP has jumped nearly 30% from its February lows. Several fractals suggest the price is falling, supported by strong XRP ETF earnings.
The XRP chart hints at a return to $12
The Milkybull chart shows XRP trading in a rising channel leading the price action since 2014. XRP is now near the downtrend of the channel around $1.30-$1.40, a zone that previously served as a trigger for a big move up.
XRP/USD Monthly Chart. Source: TradingView/MilkybullCrypto
The analyst said XRP is “probably going to $12,” a level that corresponds to the midpoint of the channel.
Momentum indicators support the concept of regression. XRP's monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to a historical support area near 40–45, similar to levels seen before previous rallies.
In Thursday's post, analyst JD pointed to a similar RSI support zone that could be a “cycle down” signal for XRP.
His two-week chart shows XRP breaking out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle and then pulling back to the breakout area.
XRP/USD two week chart. Source: TradingView/JD
The chart's projected green target zone is in line with the $8-$14 range, indicating that XRP is likely to hold the retest zone.
The bullish outlook follows XRP's sharp rebound in recent weeks, up 30% from around $1.11 in February.
RELATED: XRP Price Copies Fractal 2025 Chart With Last Profit Of 66%
At the time, XRP benefited heavily from renewed risk sentiment led by the US-Iran ceasefire, as well as market-oriented fundamentals.
These include Rakuten Wallet's XRP integration, which expanded the token's reach in Japan, and $81.6 million inflows into US spot XRP ETFs in April, a monthly total of 2026.
In the first week of May, XRP ETFs have already attracted $28.17 million in inflows.
US XRP ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue
XRP still risks a repeat of the 2022-style bear market
However, a bullish XRP setup is not guaranteed. The bears will try to push the price below the channel support. This disrupts the crash structure and exposes XRP to severe losses.
XRP/USD Monthly Chart. Source: TradingView
The support overlaps closely with XRP's 50-month moving average (50-month EMA, red line) near $1.33.
A loss of this support cluster would shift the focus back to the 100-month EMA (the purple line) near $0.93, indicating a roughly 30% decline from current levels. A similar collapse occurred during the 2022 bear market.
