XRP risks another 23% drop as the price slides below $1.60
XRP (XRP) price fell below $1.50 over the weekend, the lowest level in 14 months. Now, a bearish technical setup on the charts suggests that the downtrend may extend into February.
Main Receptors:
The XRP bearish target on the four-hour chart is $1.22.
XRP futures open interest has dropped to $2.61 billion, giving bulls some hope.
The XRP price chart shows a textbook bear pennant
On Saturday, the price of XRP fell 14% from $1.75 to a high of $1.50, missing the $1.60 support level for the first time since November 2024.
As seen on the four-hour chart below, the recent drop to the bearish pennant put the setup into a breakout phase.
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XRP dropped below the lower trendline on Tuesday, then returned to retest as support. If the retest fails and the four-hour candlestick closes below this level at $1.58, the price may decline.
Bear Pennant's measured target, calculated by adding the height of the first drop to the opening point, is $1.22, which represents a 23% decline from the current price.
XRP's recovery to $2.40 in January turned out to be fake because “the price hit a new low,” said fake analyst AltCryptoGems in a recent post on X:
“The downtrend remains intact and we are in a bearish recession in a large area with no support.”
After breaching the support line at $1.60, the path is now cleared for a drop to $1 or below, according to trader and investor Alex Clay.
According to Cointelegraph, XRP's next major support level is near the $1.48 rally. If this level is lost, it will put the average holder in the water, a setup that will closely match the 2022 bear phase, which will eventually drop 50% to $0.30.
XRP buyers are back
The 90-day Spot Tucker Cumulative Delta (CVD), a measure that tracks whether market orders are led by buyers or sellers, shows that buy orders (receptive buying) have declined sharply since early January.
As demand-side pressure dominates the order book from November 2025, buy orders have declined significantly over the past 30 days, according to CryptoQuant.
This suggests that enthusiasm or fatigue among XRP investors is waning, reducing bullishness and increasing exposure to the price.
In the past, significant declines in spot CVD have been accompanied by price declines of 28%-50% within weeks.
However, with the current downward trend, one hope for the bulls is the declining XRP futures Open Interest (OI). It fell sharply to $2.61 billion from $4.55 billion on January 6.
When OI declines combined with falling prices, it indicates a weakened bearish trend or a trend reversal.
This could provide some fuel for the bulls to test the necessary profit resistance around $1.85, a level that has served as support for most of 2025.
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