XRP Supply With Profits Mirrors 2022 Bear Market Levels: $1.10 Next?
XRP (XRP) is eyeing a potential low towards $1.10 as the decline in profitable supply signals bearish expansion and a setup for new lows.
Main Receptors:
XRP supply has dropped to 43% in profit, levels seen last November 2024.
Investors continue to sell their XRP holdings, realizing losses of $110 million per day.
XRP rising wedge breakout targets $1.10.
XRP's supply margin has dropped below 50%
As of Tuesday, 43% of all XRP coins were profitable, with levels seen to end in November 2024, according to onchain data resource Glassnode.
Historically, a decline in the metric below 50% indicates a shift from optimism to pessimism, as seen at the end of previous bear markets.
Related: XRP's Risk-Reward Improves As Whale Stock Rises: Will Price Follow?
Between January and June 2022, for example, the price of XRP dropped from $0.75 to $0.30, a decline with XRP's profitable supply dropping to 20% and below 50%. The same situation in In 2018, when the price of XRP fell by another 70%, the profit supply fell to 15%.
In fact, investors who accumulated more than $2 in XRP in the past 12 months “have been seeing losses ranging from $20 million to $110 million per day since November 2025,” Glassnode added.
In a post on X on Tuesday, a Crypto Town Hall analyst said this “reflects the widespread owner conflicts often seen during late-stage corrections” as holders continue to realize their losses, leading to steeper drops.
Additionally, the average wallets activated on the XRP Ledger last year saw a 41% drop in investment.
“This is the lowest MVRV (average value) for XRP traders since the FTX crash in November 2022,” said onchain data resource Santiment in a post on X on Tuesday, adding:
“Incredibly negative average returns mean the risk of buying or adding to your $XRP position is much lower than average, as competing traders are already in heavy ‘street bleed' territory.”
This means fresh selling could come as investors look to cut their losses, which is a key ingredient in keeping the downtrend moving towards the $1.10 target.
XRP rising wedge breakout targets $1.10
XRP/USD is in a rising wedge breakout on the daily time frame, a bearish pattern that occurs when the price squeezes in two uptrends after a heavy downtrend.
The price slipped below the wedge-low trend line of $1.37 on March 27 and is now testing a common post-breakdown test at the 50-day simple moving average near $1.38. That area is an immediate countermeasure.
If XRP fails to recover the trendline and moving averages, the setup points to a deeper move towards the pattern-measured target near $1.10, which is 16% below current levels.
This is close to the predictions of Polymarket speculators who are selling XRP with a 57% chance that the price of XRP will reach $1.20 before the end of April.
According to Cointelegraph, if the bulls fail to regain the moving averages and the price falls below $1.27, the price of XRP is at risk of falling to $1.11 and eventually to the psychological level of $1.
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