The ETH Smart Money Flow Index shows net inflows amid a bearish ETF outflow trend

TLDR

The ETH Smart Money Flow Index recorded an 18% net gain in seven days despite the ETF data.
Large static ETH wallet collection net added ETH in nine of last twelve trading sessions.
The same group pegged ETH to HyperLiquid and Base and signaled no selling during the May 14 dip.
This storage pattern mirrors wallet behavior in October 2023, before ETH went from $1,500 to $4,100.

The ETH Smart Money Flow Index recorded an 18% increase in net inflows in seven days, even as ETF flows increased. This difference is drawing attention from chain analysts who track big wallet behavior.

While exchange data and ETF metrics refer to capital, a different layer of chain activity tells a different story.

The comparison between these two data streams is shaping how some analysts interpret the current ETH market conditions.

Big wallets net-buy ETH during the price drop

ETH recently lost the support level of $2,200, which triggered a broad sense of depression in the market. ETF inflows totaled $431.86 million in eight sessions between May 11 and May 20. Public dashboards have also broadly reflected capital signals at the same time.

However, Alfractal, the Smart Money Flow Index posted on X, tells a different story. The gauge tracks the largest volatile ETH wallet collections and tracks where liquidity moves on-chain. According to the article, these wallets have net-added ETH in nine of the last twelve sessions.

This scale does not read ETF wraps or include exchange rates. InstADVERTISEMENT, groups that have historically been associated with large ETH price movements will focus on wallet-level activity. That difference sets it apart from most publicly available tracking tools.

The same group started linking ETH to HyperLiquid and Base on May 14th. This activity indicates repositioning rather than outright selling, which differs from current exchange flow data.

The pattern shown in October 2023 of the rear position mirrors on the chain

Alfractal notes that this behavior mirrors the same group pattern seen in October 2023. At that point, these wallets will accumulate ETH before the asset goes from $1,500 to $4,100. The current set-up is drawing comparisons with previous levels of assembly.

Stacking ETF flow data with Smart Money flow data provides a clearer picture, the post said. Retail investors and ETF dealers seem to be selling below $2,200. Meanwhile, the team tied for the bottom of the previous cycle continues to hold that supply.

No single metric is enough to accurately read the ETH market structure. ETF flows look weak in isolation, while smart funds read bullish on their own. Combining both layers reveals the difference between the surface-level emotion and the deeper movement on the chain.

Alphafractal immediately stopped predicting price movements. The article explained that the baseline is pure buying behavior and not a short-term price call. The distinction between front-page narratives and wallet crowdfunding remains a central point of analysis.