Bitcoin Reaches $74,000 As ETF Inflow Face Miner Selling And War Tensions

Main Receptors:

Despite strong ETF earnings, Bitcoin remains tied to the S&P 500 and sensitive to global macroeconomic developments.

Bitcoin futures premiums and mining sales suggest that the bear market continues despite trading above $74,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $74,000 on Monday following modest gains in the S&P 500 index after US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders seem to be slowly gaining confidence following strong net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and strategizing (MSTR US), but is the bear market over?

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $615 million in net inflows between Thursday and Friday, reversing the trend of the previous two days. In parallel, Strategy announced that it had acquired 13,927 BTC last week. The $1 billion acquisition was made through production arm Stretch ( STRC US ).

Despite growing interest from institutional investors, Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the S&P 500 and the broader macroeconomic movements of the US economy. Bitcoin dropped to $70,500 over the weekend following the failed US-Iran ceasefire talks. However, Brent crude oil prices eventually retreated to $99, paving the way for riskier assets including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin showed strength at $74,000, but derivatives metrics have yet to turn upside down.

Bitcoin monthly futures were trading at a 2% annual premium relative to the regular spot markets, indicating a lack of bullish interest. In neutral situations, the index should contain 4% to 8% to cover the cost of capital. Regardless of the past two weeks' performance, Bitcoin is down 18% in 2026, while the S&P 500 is relatively flat year-to-date.

Regulatory transparency could support Bitcoin's rally.

While the cause of Bitcoin's sharp correction at the end of January cannot be pinpointed, a lack of support from US lawmakers regarding the regulatory landscape played a major role. US Senator Cynthia Lammis has urged her colleagues to pass the CLARITY Act, which would outline how stablecoin issuers operate and set limits on what tokens are supposed to be decentralized.

The bill currently faces a critical window in the Senate Banking Committee. Major exchanges have recently expressed concern over the late addition of restrictions to decentralized finance (DeFi) and the true scope of tokenized assets. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins said “it's time” for Congress to move forward with regulation.

USD stablecoins were trading at a 0.4% discount against the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate on Monday, a sign of excessive demand to exit the cryptocurrency markets. Balanced demand generates a 0.5% to 1.5% premium to offset traditional FX remittance costs and regulatory friction caused by China's capital controls.

Related: How Bitcoin and Gold Reacted Differently to the Iran War Shock

Pressure on Bitcoin miners to sell, US macroeconomic instability

Given the strong correlation with traditional markets and weak derivatives metrics, especially with publicly listed miners reducing their positions recently, there is no basis to assume that a Bitcoin bear market is based on ETF earnings and the holdings of a few companies.

Mara Holdings (MARA US) sold 15,133 BTC, Riot Platforms (RIOT US) reduced its exposure by 2,325 BTC and Cango (CANG US) sold 2,000 BTC in the last 30 days.

Currently, Bitcoin's path to $80,000 is largely dependent on better risk perception, although short-term momentum is largely dependent on the US and Israel-Iran war.